Saturday, May 7, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Spot Starter Pickups For Saturday 5/7/11

Thursday's Recommended Starter One's Stats - Philip Humber - 7.0 Innings Pitched - 4 Strikeout - No Decision - 2.57 ERA - 0.86 WHIP
Thursday's Recommended Starter Two's Stats - Tim Stauffer - 6.2 Innings Pitched - 6 Strikeout - No Decision - 0.00 ERA - 0.75 WHIP
Week Five Starters' Stats - 36.2 Innings Pitched - 26 Strikeouts - 6.38 K/9 - 1 Win in 6 Starts - 4.91 ERA - 1.17 WHIP
Cumulative Starters' Stats - 269.2 Innings Pitched - 214 Strikeouts - 7.14 K/9 - 16 Wins in 44 Starts - 3.74 ERA - 1.16 WHIP
Starter Spreadsheet Viewable Online Here

A pair of great starts on Friday to help recover from the awful John Lackey outing on Thursday.  Both Humber and Stauffer went deep into the game and gave a handful of strikeouts.  The ERA and WHIP were good, and both guys pitched well enough to get a win.  Stauffer was fully in line for a win until Heath Bell blew the save in the ninth.  Once again here Saturday, I'm eliminating players below the 50% line from my spot start choices here.  Bud Norris is an obvious number one choice, but he is going to be owned in any league thats on top of things.  Madison Bumgarner is also a solid spot starter choice, but he probably shouldn't have been cut anyways and was likely picked back up after his two good starts.  Bartolo Colon should be owned in your league, but I'm not recommending him here at Texas anyways, so I'm also disqualifying him here. Now, onto a pair of starters who should be available in your league for Saturday...

Saturday's Spot Starter One - Chris Young - New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers - 7:10 PM ET - 16.8% Owned In ESPN Leagues

Chris Young has been solid in the three of his four starts this year that weren't when he was coming off the DL.  He has been striking guys so far this year out at better than his career 7.83 K/9 rate despite of missing some velocity due to his elbow injury.  He's been getting it done even though he had to play the Phillies twice in this time, and should continue to get it done here against the Dodgers.  I like him for a solid six strikeouts and a low ERA and WHIP with a strong shot at a win.

Saturday's Spot Starter Two - Doug Fister - Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox - 9:10 PM ET - 1.5% Owned In ESPN Leagues

Fister has been solid in all but one of his starts so far this year, and has been a useful fantasy spot starter going back to late last year.  His K/9 is up this year, and he has good enough control and stuff to keep the ERA and WHIP down over the last few years.  Fister draws the frozen White Sox lineup at home at Safeco Field late Friday night, and should be able to deliver on the solid stats he has over the course of this year and has a shot at a win with Seattle having won eight of their last ten starts.

The rest of the starts are listed in the order that I would play them.  The mixed league line is going to be a little lower today for those chasing late in the week.  Ownership percentages in ESPN leagues are listed in parenthesis.

Dustin Moseley (9.2%) - San Diego vs Arizona - Moseley's ERA and WHIP on the year make him automatically startable, even without the strikeout potential.  Stauffer showed just last night that the Diamondbacks lineup is can be neutralized by a solid pitcher in Petco.  Start Moseley, especially if you are chasing in ERA and WHIP.

Jon Garland (9.0%) - LA Dodgers at NY Mets - Garland is an innings eater.  He's going to go out there and give you seven innings of solid ERA and WHIP with a handful of strikeouts almost every time.  He gets to pitch in Citi field here,  and while not as good a choice as Chris Young, Garland can help you chase in every category.

Brian Duensing (11.6%) - Minnesota at Boston - Duensing has been good so far this year, and thats even though he faced a hard early schedule.  He played Royals twice already, along with the Twins, Rays and Yankees.  It's not getting much easier here in Boston, but the Sox have been slumping some lately, and I expect more of the same solid stats from Duensing.

Jeremy Guthrie (17.4%) - Baltimore vs Tampa Bay - Guthrie had a great first start this year against Tampa Bay, but he has been up and down since, and Tampa has been hot over the last three weeks after starting the season slow.  He has a good shot to give you decent stats and is worth the start if you need the stats to catch up.

This is the ten-team mixed league line.  Only the players listed above this line are recommended for mixed leagues.  Don't chase this deep unless you are in deep or AL/NL-Only leagues.

Decent Starters...Bad Match-ups
Brandon McCarthy (13.7%) - Oakland at Kansas City
Derek Holland (12.3%) - Texas vs NY Yankees
Charlie Morton (2.7%) - Pittsburgh vs Houston
Tom Gorzelanny (1.0%) - Washington at FloridaAll four of these guys have been solid enough this year to get consideration on other days, but all of them have bad match-ups here against top ten offenses on Saturday.  You are playing them all in your AL/NL-Only leagues, but there is no reason to be playing any of these four in a standard ten-team mixed league.

Alex White (0.7%) - Cleveland at LA Angels - White had a passable first start against Detroit and might catch a recommendation here against the Angels if he didn't draw Jered Weaver as the opposing starting pitcher.  Don't bother here, cause he's not even going to pick up the win.

The +6.00 ERA Club
Esmil Rogers (0.6%) - Colorado at San Francisco
Chris Volstad (0.1%) - Florida vs Washington
Casey Coleman (0.1%) - Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati
All of these guys have an ERA above 6.00 and none of them are in fact very good.  Rogers might be playable because of his match-up in NL-Only leagues, but only if you live on the edge.  Otherwise there is nothing to see here.

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