Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Pickup And Drop Ideas For Wednesday 5/25/11

Two Weeks Ago's Recommendation - Drop Jose Lopez and Pickup Scott Rolen

Lopez has been hitting .353 over the last two weeks, but has picked up just two runs and a single stolen base.  Rolen has hit for a similarly solid average at .342 but has been much better in the counting stats, picking up six runs and five RBIs with a stolen base.  This is going to continue to go this way.  Rolen plays in a better offense so he'll pick up more counting stats, and he will hit for a better average as well.

Last Week's Recommendation - Drop Josh Tomlin and Pickup Madison Bumgarner

It's harder to evaluate a pair of pitchers after just one week because generally they will only have one start each, and that's what happened here.  Both guys did turn solid starts in wins.  Bumgarner went a little deeper into the start so he had a better ERA, but Tomlin let up less hits and walks so he grabbed a better WHIP.  That was the only difference between the two through one week.  We'll keep an eye on this for a while, but I have to insist that you drop Tomlin.  He's going to blow up soon.  He's not this good of a pitcher.

This Wednesday we are also going to look at a pair of starting pitchers.  I write about spot starter recommendations every day, but that doesn't help you evaluate pitchers that are owned in more than fifty percent of leagues.  One to drop and one to pickup coming up...

The Droppable - Mat Latos - Starting Pitcher - San Diego Padres - 94.8% Owned in ESPN Leagues

Latos helped carry a bunch of teams to fantasy titles last year, but he's just going to keep you from picking up a title this year.  Latos is just 1-6 on the year with a 4.60 ERA and thats just not pretty enough to be worth owning in nearly every league.  He hasn't completed seven innings yet in any of his eight starts and has only even made it into the seventh inning once.  It looks like his massive innings increase last year is getting to him.  Even worse for Latos, the Padres offense is even worse than last year, so he won't have a remote shot to match his 2010 win total.  Even though he's striking out nearly a batter per inning, you could be getting the same amount of strikeouts with better ERA and WHIP elsewhere.

The Pickup - Homer Bailey - Starting Pitcher - Cincinnati Reds - 77.3% Owned in ESPN Leagues

Homer has been lights out since he came off the DL, sporting a crisp 2.08 and 0.88 WHIP and has already picked up three wins in four stats.  His BABIP is a little low and his strand rate is a little high, but even when they normal out, his ERA should be in the 3.5 range at worst.  His walk rate is down his year and he's still striking out nearly 7 batters per nine innings.  He would be owned in every league if he didn't start off the year on the DL for the long haul, but wasn't drafted because of his DL stint and players are slow to react to free agent pitchers that are pitching well.  Bailey should be owned up around the hundred percent mark, and should definitely be owned more than Mat Latos.

-Fred "Big Derf" Tobin

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