Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Pickup And Drop Ideas For Wednesday 5/18/11

Last Wednesday's Droppable Player - Jose Lopez - Third Base - Colorado - 5/11 - .455 Average - 2 Run - 0 Home Runs - 0 Runs Batted In - 1 Stolen Bases - ESPN Player Rater Last 7 Days - 0.72
Last Wednesday's Pickup - Daniel Descalso and Scott Rolen - Third Base - St. Louis and Cincinnati - 10/28 - .357 Average - 3 Runs - 0 Home Run - 5 Run Batted In - 0 Stolen Bases - ESPN Player Rater Last 7 Days - N/A
(Stats as of before Wednesday's games)

Lopez gave you a week of good average, but that's only because he is part of a platoon.  He didn't help you much in the counting categories.  On the other hand, even if you just went from Lopez to Descalso in a deep league you got an upgrade, as Descalso gave you a run and four RBIs over the seven day span, and if you went Descalso then Rolen like i recommended, you picked up three runs and five RBIs along with a solid average to go with it.  Rolen has been on fire in the four days since he came back and should be picked up in standard mixed leagues.  This Wednesday we are going to take a look at starting pitching.  While I write a spot starter column daily, I generally only supply opinions on readily available players when I do that.  Today I'm going to be talking about players owned in more than fifty percent of leagues, one pitcher that shouldn't be owned as much as he is and another who should be owned in every league...

The Droppable - Josh Tomlin - Starting Pitcher - Cleveland Indians - 88.4% Owned in ESPN Leagues

While picking up Tomlin looks like it was a solid move based on his ERA and WHIP while going 5-1 on the year, the underlying numbers show that its a mistake.  He's gotten extremely lucky, holding opponents to just a .178 BABIP and stranding 86.2% of the base runners he has let get on.  Both of those numbers are going to level out some, and when they do his ERA and WHIP are going to balloon back up to where they should be. He looks good right now, but at the end of the year his ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts are all going to be around the level of Mark Buehrle.  You don't want Buehrle on your team, and you especially don't want a guy whose numbers are going to go from good to Buehrle, as that means you've already missed on the good stats.

The Pickup - Madison Bumgarner - Starting Pitcher - San Francisco Giants - 52.2% Owned in ESPN Leagues

Bumgarner got off to a poor start to the year, but has turned it around over his last four starts back to the pitcher you expected him to be on draft day.  He has worked his ERA down to 4.25 and his WHIP to 1.42 while bringing back the expected strikeout totals and his FIP is a smooth 3.07.  He is 0-6 on the year, but that doesn't reflect how well he's been pitching on the year.  He took a loss in a game against Washington where he didn't let up any earned runs over seven innings.  If his owner got impatient in your league then its time to pick him up.  He's only going to turn in better starts from here on out, unlike Tomlin, who has nowhere to go but down.

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