Sunday, October 2, 2011

NFL Week Four Game Picks And Over/Unders

Week Three Totals
Straight Up Picks - 11-5
Picks vs Spread - 7-8-1
Over/Unders - 8-8
"Bankroll" - Down 2.6 Units

Season To Date Totals
Straight Up Picks - 31-17
Picks vs Spread - 24-21-3
Over/Unders - 22-25-1
"Bankroll" - Down 4.6 Units

That season long negative total is very deceiving...its all vigs. I've won 46 and lost 46 games picks against the spread and totals, so that 4.6 units down is just the cost of betting at -110.  It might force me to add in some upset special picks in the future, as I've had a few underdogs come through as winners already (including the Giants at a theoretical +325 last week).

For now though, it's the same format as the first three weeks of the season, just me giving you picks for every game this weekend...

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) O/U 46
Not going to have comments on every game, but this line is just wrong all around.  The Lions should be favored even on the road here and the over under should be at least 50.  Oh well, good news for us.
Prediction - Lions 31 Cowboys 20
Picks - Lions Straight Up and +2.5 And Over

New Orleans Saints (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 45
This line is actually insane.  The Saints have scored at least 30 points in every game this season.  The Jaguars have scored 29 points all season.  The Saints should be laying at least 13 against the rookie here.
Prediction - Saints 33 Jaguars 10
Picks - Saints -7 and Under

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) O/U 44
Hard not to like the Eagles here.  West Coast Team who hasn't looked good playing on the East coast in a 1:00 start against an angry Michael Vick? -9.5 is no problem here.
Prediction - Eagles 28 49ers 17
Picks - Eagles -9.5 and Over

Washington Redskins (-2.5) at St. Louis Rams O/U 44
Still like the Rams to show up at some point this year, and like Rex Grossman to remember that he's Rex Grossman any day now (in fact, he may have realized it this past Monday night).
Prediction - Rams 23 Redskins 20
Picks - Rams Straight Up and  +2.5 and Under

Tennessee Titans (-1) at Cleveland Browns O/U 38.5
I liked this earlier in the week when the Titans were dogs, and apparently so did everyone else.  The Browns aren't a complete team yet, and the Titans look to be the best of the non-contenders early here this season.
Prediction - Titans 20 Browns 10
Picks - Titans -1 and Under

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals O/U 43.5
This is the game I am by far the least confident in.  I mean, the Bills should be a solid 7 point favorite here after beating the Patriots last week, but they are giving just 3 here on the road.  I don't have a good enough read on this team to say if this is great value, or if Vegas and the oddsmakers are trying to bait people into betting on the Bill here. I'm going to take the Bills, but am not going to be surprised at all at any outcome to this game.
Prediction - Bills 30 Bengals 10
Picks - Bills -3 and Under

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs O/U 39.5
The Vikings are only an average team but after losing multiple halftime leads they are obviously getting no respect.  But against the Chiefs, who deserve no respect, I have to take the Vikings.
Prediction - Vikings 23 Chiefs 13
Picks - Vikings -3 and Under

Chicago Bears (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers O/U 43
This Chicago defense is just the kind of defense that will shut down a young quarterback like Cam Newton.  They force a quarterback to be precise on all of his throws, and Cam isn't there yet in his NFL development.
Prediction - Bears 24 Panthers 16
Picks - Bears -6.5 and Under

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-3.5) O/U 45
Houston has looked good early and had a close game with a good Saints team last week.  The Steelers have looked bad early and had a close game with a awful Colts team last week.  I like the Texans at home here
Prediction - Texans 38 Steelers 20
Picks - Texans -3.5 and Over

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks O/U 38.5
Atlanta wasn't sharp last week against the Buccaneers, but are a team that is built to beat up on bad teams like the Seahawks.  Even with the advantage out in Seattle, the Falcons should still be able to pull this game out.
Prediction - Falcons 20 Seahawks 10
Picks - Falcons -4.5 and Under

New York Giants (-1) at Arizona Cardinals O/U 44.5
The Giants are about to go on a little winning streak here.  If you've seen their schedule, you know what I'm talking about.  It starts here with an Arizona team that couldn't win in Seattle last week.
Prediction - Giants 28 Cardinals 24
Picks - Giants -1 and Over

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7) O/U 44.5
Whew... it's finally October.  It's safe to pick the Chargers here.
Prediction - Chargers 30 Dolphins 20
Picks - Chargers -7 and Over

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12) O/U 46
There is no way that Denver wins this game.  That said, I think they'll cover.  Green Bay has been letting teams hang around all season.  While they have the potential to crush Denver, I don't see it here.
Prediction - Packers 27 Broncos 17
Picks - Packers to win but Broncos +12 and Under

New England Patriots (-6) at Oakland Raiders O/U 55
I think New England can win this game, but I don't think they have the defense to run away with it.  Oakland is going to run Darren McFadden down their throats all game long, and it will let them hang in this game with the Pats.
Prediction - Patriots 27 Raiders 23
Picks - Patriots to win but Raiders +6 and Under

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-4) O/U 43.5
I don't think that the Jets are very good, and I think the Ravens will be able to take advantage of them.  The Ravens defense is nearly as good as the Jets defense, and Baltimore's offense is far superior to New York's.
Prediction - Ravens 31 Jets 14
Picks - Ravens -4 and Over

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) O/U 40.5
It is going to take a crazy line to get me to pick the Colts before Peyton Manning gets back, and this line is about 6 or 7 points from where it needs to be to get me to think about the Colts at all.
Prediction - Buccaneers 30 Colts 10
Picks - Buccaneers -10 and Under

-Fred "Big Derf" Tobin

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