Friday, July 29, 2011

NFL Player Movement Reactions - Friday 7/29/11

I had hoped free agency would have slowed down a little today, but it just kept on trucking along at full speed.  You can check out my reactions to Tuesday's player moves here (cuts) and here (signings), Wednesday's player moves here, and Thursday's moves here.

Onto the Friday news quickly here in more or less the order that the news came out.  There is plenty to discuss.......

Roy Williams - Wide Receiver - Signed with Chicago Bears - Talked on Tuesday about how it was a good idea for the Cowboys to let Williams go.  On the other side of that, it is also a good idea for the Bears to pick up Williams to a one year deal.  I can't find the terms of the contract, but as long as there is a low guarantee there is very little risk involved with the signing.  The Bears don't really have anyone good at receiver, and Williams best season in his career came in Detroit when Martz was the quarterback.  This is a good match.

If he manages to get himself a starting job out in Chicago, he is going to be a high upside sleeper pick.  He won't be valued highly in drafts at all, but Chicago is going to throw the ball a lot no matter who is playing receiver as long as Martz is their coordinator.  If Williams does show up, he has thousand yard ten touchdown upside.  That'll be a good pick in something like the 14th.

Eric Wright - Cornerback - Signed with Detroit Lions - This move is only notable because it wasn't even close to the right move.  The way the Bengals are build right now on offense, they should have put the cash on the table for either Johnathan Joseph or Nnamdi Asomugha.  Instead they signed a mediocre corner in Wright who really isn't going to do much to help their pass defense.

Danieal Manning - Safety - Signed with Houston Texans - Manning is a pretty good deep zone safety, which is pretty obvious because he used to start for the Bears in their cover-two shell.  It was a four year 20 million dollar deal according to his agent, and that is a small price to pay for the best safety on the market if you were as bad on pass defense last year as Houston was.  Smart move here.

Jamaal Anderson (Defensive End) and Michael Jenkins (Wide Receiver) - Cut by Atlanta Falcons - These moves are only relevant because they are former first round picks.  Its actually a sign of how bad the organization was drafting before they hired Thomas Dimitroff as GM from New England.  Jenkins will probably get signed by some other team as a number four receiver, where he shouldn't be too bad.  This just reaffirms the fact that Julio Jones is taking over as the number two option out in Atlanta this year.

Sam Hurd - Wide Receiver - Signed with Chicago Bears - The second former Cowboy receiver the Bears signed today, and probably the better of the two guys in my book.  Unless they stay loyal to Devin Hester, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Hurd and Williams starting this year for Chicago.  Hurd has had focus problems at times with his hands, but that is going to be nothing new to the Bears out of their receivers.

Hurd might actually be a true fantasy sleeper here, depending on when your draft is.  If you are one of the fools (yes fools) drafting this weekend, Hurd has high upside potential if he takes over a starting role in Chicago this preseason.  By the end of the preseason, if he gains the starting job without putting up a bunch of meaningless preseason stats and catching the "hype" he'll still have very low value but still high upside.  Or he could just go the route of every other Bears receiver.  It's a toss up.

Matt Moore - Quarterback - Signed with Miami - This is only relevant because he will be backing up Chad Henne in Miami.  Henne hasn't done much to inspire confidence in him moving forward in Miami, so I wouldn't be surprised if he manages to lose this job at some point this year.  That said, Moore isn't really the answer either.  Just a average backup.

Willis McGahee - Running Back - Signed with Denver Broncos - McGahee isn't a great running back at this stage of his career, but the reported three years for 7.5 million really isn't a bad deal at all for the Broncos.  He's a decent power back, and can be fairly effective on five carries a game player spelling Knowshon Moreno this year.

Fantasy wise,  him going to Denver might end up murdering Moreno's fantasy value this year.  If he takes over as the short yardage back in the same way that he got playing time in Baltimore, Moreno will be screwed.  Moreno needs to be getting at least some goal line carries to be an effective fantasy back.  If he doesn't get any, hes not going to be more than a flex play.

Derrick Harvey - Defensive End - Released by Jacksonville Jaguars - This is just on the list because it's kind of funny.  The Jaguars fell in love with the guy and traded up to #8 to draft him well before he should have been drafted.  How did that work out for them?  Horribly, as you would expect it to.

Ray Edwards - Defensive End - Signed by Atlanta Falcons - I'm going to say this right now... Bust.  Edwards should not have gotten a five year deal worth 30 million, because he's not a six million dollar a year player.  He was an average player who looked good playing next two three lineman better than him in Minnesota.  You can't justify six million a year for a player who couldn't hasn't managed a double digit sack season in his whole career, especially when he spend most of that career playing across from Jared Allen.  If you want to see the future of this move, take a look out to Cincinnati, who just cut Antwan Odom three years after signing him to basically the same contract.

Harvey Dahl - Guard - Signed with St. Louis Rams - The money that Atlanta spent on Edwards would have been better spent bringing back Dahl.  He is one of the league's better guards, and should provide better play at guard for a better price than Edwards will at defensive end.  St. Louis' offense should be good for the next three to five years no matter who is at the skill positions because they have done a great job investing in young quality offensive linemen.  There is over 100 million in contracts on that line, and they've done a good job building it so they get what they pay for.

Dawan Landry - Safety - Signed with Jacksonville Jaguars - A good replacement here for the departed Sean Considine, Landry is an excellent player and a good signing for the Jaguars here.  Landry has needed to be amazingly consistent in the Ravens offense for years to allow Ed Reed to do all of the freelancing that Reed does out there in Baltimore.  He's been great on the field even if it hasn't meant all of the stats and accolades that Reed gets.  Smart move here.

Brandon Mebane - Defensive Tackle - Resigned with Seattle Seahawks - Mebane was very good when he was playing last year and was definitely a difference maker for the Seattle defense.  He drew interest from many teams as a free agent and that drove his price up on Mebane.  25 million over five years is a fine price the way he was playing last season.

Nnamdi Asomugha - Cornerback - Signed with Philadelphia Eagles - This one was a surprise.  I knew this morning he wasn't going to the Jets, because if he was he would have signed that contract last night, but I didn't expect the Eagles to be players in the Nnamdi market after picking up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kolb trade.

Obviously, any team signing Nnamdi is making a good maneuver.  He was the best free agent available and an upgrade for any team in the league.  He's probably the best man-to-man cover corner in the league.  Even at 12 million a year (five years for 60 million total) he's somewhat of a bargain.

The only real problem i have with the move is that they just traded for Rodgers-Cromartie.  They traded Kolb for DRC and a second round pick, so why then drop the money in the free agent market to pick up Asomugha as well?  If you are pursuing Nnamdi, then why not hold off on the trade with the Cardinals for a day or two and maybe just make it Kolb for a 1st and 3rd round pick or something?   I think there might be a follow up move here with Samuel in the works.  He is a great corner, but is better at jumping routes and playing in a zone, while DRC and Nnamdi are man cover guys.  They might be switching some things in their defense, and if Samule ends up moving, then this move would be amazing.  Still a good move, just a lot of money to tie up in the Cornerback spot between those three guys.

Mike Sims-Walker - Wide Receiver - Signed with St. Louis Rams - Sims-Walker is a weird player to try and evaluate.  He has shown up for big games at times in Jacksonville, but he disappears in many other games.  I haven't been able to watch enough Jaguar games myself (and honestly, who has?) to figure out how good he is.  Without contract details, its hard to know whether or not this is a good signing, but the Rams do need receivers for Sam Bradford, so this does make some sense.

Al Harris - Defensive Back - Signed with St. Louis Rams - This is a good maneuver here for the Rams assuming they have a good price here for Harris.  I'm assuming he'll play some corner and some safety for the Rams as Spagnoulo loves his press corners, but Harris doesn't have the same speed he used to to play corner all of the time.  Good move if they get anything out of him, and I'm sure the contract includes something to protect the Rams if Harris just doesn't have anything left.

Kevin Burnett - Linebacker - Signed with Miami - Signing Burnett for four years and 21 million is right about what seems to be market value for a starting linebacker this year, and Burnett was one of the better options available for 3-4 defenses.  He was a good starter last year in San Diego, but not at all the type of player that Chargers' GM A.J. Smith would bring back.  To make room for him, the Dolphins cut Channing Crowder, which basically makes this a youth upgrade.

That's it for now.  Will update later if more stuff goes down.

-Fred "Big Derf" Tobin

No comments:

Post a Comment