Fantasy Draft Live Blog - 3/24/11

Hey guys.  Doing my main fantasy draft with my buddies tonight and am going to try and live blog the draft here. Going to provide insight to my own picks and make fun of everyone else all night.  Going to live blog it here with CoverItLive.  Check it out

Daily Links For 3/24/11

Matthew Berry's Bold Predictions - Fantasy baseball predictions from THE Fantasy guy... Matthew Berry.  Not going to step on his toes by copying any of his bold predictions here. Gonna leave one of my own though - Mike Aviles will finish in the top ten at second base at the end of the year.

Football Outsiders Determines Effects Of New Kick Off Rule - Warning: Link is ESPN Insider only - Football Outsiders uses their play by play data to try and figure out how many more touchbacks there will be next year.  Simple answer, a shit load. There is a chart that shows ten kickers that all would have more than ten more touchbacks next year.

Neftali Feliz to Remain Ranger's Closer - Yeah... Link really says it all.  Important mainly for fantasy purposes, but wanted to link here.

Blaine Gabbert Is Awesome - Link is to an ESPN story all about Gabbert personally.  This kind of article is why he'll probably go first overall.  Any talent concerns with Gabbert are soothed by his amazing off the field personality.  NFL scouts are realizing more and more how important character guys are, and Gabbert has character in spades.

Buck Showalter Talks Shit About Yanks and Red Sox - Or in other words, Buck Showalter does exactly what you'd want the manager of the Orioles to do.  If you're the manager of the Orioles you are in a tough place behind the Red Sox and Yankees and Rays.  Talking shit about them is the first step to getting your team believing they actually have a shot to win that division.

Ochocinco Below Own Expectations at Soccer Tryout - There's minimal NFL news today.  That's all the excuse I have for this one.

Bill Parcells Leaves Dolphins... Back On ESPN - After a few years of hanging out in Florida doing nothing for the Dolphins... Tuna is heading back to ESPN.  He's going to be a draft analyst at first and will likely find his way back onto Sunday Countdown come fall.

Also going to use this space to kinda announce a future site feature.  Once fantasy baseball season starts I'm going to offer a daily spot start candidate.  It'll be a player available in a yet to be determined large percentage of ESPN leagues.  The plan is to offer one for every day all season long so you'll have a reason to come back here every day.

Daily Links 3/22/11

Mike Vick Up For Madden Cover. People Are Up In Arms. Naturally... Vick's name is brought up in anything and there is a major shit storm attached, even if he's just one of 32 guys up for a fan vote for the Madden cover.  He's not making the cover for his dog fighting. He's making it cause he's exciting as hell on the football field (I'm a Giants fan and hate him BTW).   Ray Lewis was never convicted... But everyone agrees that he probably killed two people.  Brett Farve, we now know, is a shitty person... A married man who sends around pictures of his penis. But these two are the examples of past cover athletes this article uses.  Get a grip people.  He's not gonna make the cover and we don't need a full explanation on why he's horrible every time he comes up.


Madden Cover Vote - The post about Mike Vick being up for the Madden Cover actually fails to link to the actual Madden Cover vote.  Love the idea of the Madden Cover vote but not so sure about this year's execution.  There's one player from each team (and Seattle's 12th man) which kinda turns it into a team popularity contest.  They should have narrowed it down to like 8 guys who deserve the cover and then let us vote on it. BTW... My money is on Tebow.  He shouldn't win but you can't underestimate that Christian vote.


Madden 12 Teaser - While we're discussing Madden.  Figure I'd link to teaser they put out yesterday.  It somehow shows absolutely nothing but still gets you pumped.


Mike Francesa Blowing Up - Not really news. Just fun to listen to.  Caller calls in about Wilpons being net gainers on Madoff scheme.  Francesa is arguing that Wilpons took out money thinking it was legit and that makes it okay.  Based on what I've been informed, Mike Francesa is in the wrong here.  That doesn't stop him from yelling at and over his listener.


NFL Moves Kickoffs To 35 Yard Line - While I thought this would kill the return game, I actually think it might make returns, when they happen, much more exciting.  There are going to be less returns next year because it will be five yards easier to get a touchback.  However, they are also limiting kicking team players to just a five yard run up.  That means they won't be going as fast on kickoffs because it's hard to get up to speed in five yards and harder to do it while not going offsides.  This is going to give return men more room to work with at the beginning of their returns.  It's going to hurt expectations for kick returners this year, but I doubt it will actually hurt kick returns that much.


Football Outsiders Stats Point Out Bad Corners - Linked to their stats with good corners last week so figured I should also link to their post about bad corner stats as well even if it's a few days late.  This chart shows what we already know... DeAngelo Hall is garbage.  Also found it interesting that Revis shows up on the average YAC chart.  While he's perceived as good in coverage, he's definitely not a good tackler.


Lost's Carlton Cuse Goofs With Texas Pitcher C.J. Wilson - Fun little sports related bit off of Funny or Die.  Not really much comment for me to put here.. Just watch the video.


That's enough links for one day I think. Dunno what the next column will be yet.  Still mulling over ideas. Stay Tuned

MLB Fantasy Sleepers: Gio Gonzalez Can Help Your Team More Than Albert Pujols

In fantasy baseball, everyone knows that Albert Pujols is the best player available.  If you have the first pick in a draft you take Pujols and then go get a snack because you have two rounds till your next pick.  But Pujols isn't going to win you the league.  If he gets hurt you he might lose you your league, but if you don't do a good job with the rest of your draft it's not going to matter what Pujols does.

If you want to win your league you are going to do it later in the draft.  Here is an article that features data from last years leagues.  It shows the players who were on the highest percentage of top teams in yahoo leagues last year.  Not a single guy on the list of top eleven players there was drafted in the first round.  Instead the list features guys like Carlos Gonzalez (ADP 143.6), Buster Posey (ADP 238.1), and Mat Latos (ADP 248.6).

This should be common sense, but it's not.  Fantasy players are focused on the figuring out the top guys at each position.  But guys drafted in the first few rounds are basically all going to be good players, you're not going to win your league by drafting guys that are only marginally better than the guys going in the spots around them.  However, if you pick up someone in the 15th round who ends up as the best player in fantasy (like Carlos Gonzalez last year) you are at a huge advantage.

So this is a list, in no particular order, of five players whose ADP is 200+ but who will give you more value than your typical 21st-25th round pick.  It's a mix of players who are just plain undervalued (like the guy mentioned in the title, Gio Gonzalez) and players whose upside potential I believe to much higher than where they are being drafted.

Daily Links For 3/18/11

Jim Tressel Self Increases Suspension - This came out late last night.  Because his players received a five game ban for their actions but Tressel only received a two game ban for knowing about them, he volunteered to have his own suspension increases to match his players' suspensions.  Classy Classy move in my opinion.  There are too many guys like Rich Rodriguez who bail on their players.  For Tressel to stand up and ask for his suspension to be extended is a great move on his part.

Mets Cut Luis Castillo - This is only news because somehow they cut Castillo but Oliver Freaking Perez still has a job.

More Union Said League Said In Lockout Talks - Union now saying NFL was changing status quo with their last offer.  NFL says union could have kept negotiating about it.  I personally don't care as long as they figure it out soon.

Also a little programming note.   MLB Fantasy Sleeper Column coming Monday.

Daily Links For 3/17/11

100 Fantasy Baseball Facts By Matthew Berry - I know that I'm a day late on this one, but unless your fantasy draft was yesterday this is still useful.  Berry brings it as usual and does a great job proving the same point he does every year...Stats can be made to be misleading.  To prove it he wrote a paragraph about Player A... Using Stats Describing a player you would never want on your team.... And another paragraph about Player B... Using stats that describe him as a good player who should have a great year this year... And then reveals that both paragraphs are about B.J. Upton.  The column would be worth the read for that reminder itself but he also gives you 100 facts about other players this year.

Shogun Rua Sports Science - I'm a sucker for ESPN's Sports Science web shorts.  Nothing mind boggling here but still a decent way to blow three minutes.

Worst Fans In Sports By GQ - Not that GQ is any kind of sports news source.  But I had to link it because they put Phillies and Eagles fans in a tie for first place... Right where they should be.

Former NFL Officiating Head Mike Pereira On The Proposed Competition Committee Rule Changes - Another post that was technically from yesterday but it was updated at 11:54 P.M. so sue me.  Pereira breaks down what he thinks about the rule changes and the lack of a fix in the Calvin Johnson catch.  Even under the new proposal... The Megatron catch from week 1 won't be considered a catch.  I still think that is just ridiculous to anyone who watched the play.  He had won the game for his team and put the ball on the ground as he went to stand up.  He shouldn't have to stand up after the catch for it to count.

Late Edit Additions

Michael Wilbon on the Hill Rose issue - (Warning: Link leads to column that contains use of the n word) Wilbon brings it on the issue of what does in our society constitute "blackness" as opposed to what should.  I'm not someone qualified enough to get in on the society-wide discussion that Rose and Hill have provoked but Wilbon knows what he is talking  about and does a great job of it as always.

San Diego Linebacker Kevin Burnett Whines About Goodell - Burnett whines that Goodell has fined players and "change[d] a game that [he's] never played." Newsflash Kevin - THATS HIS JOB!  Just because he's never played the game doesn't make him unqualified.  Burnett says that Tagliabue was better, without mentioning that he's never played the game either.  Burnett also whines about drug suspensions and lack of a drug program but doesn't know what he's talking about there either.  He claims 1st offense is a six game ban, but its not. It's a 4 game ban for a first offense with performance enhancing drugs.  If you test positive for something like Marijuana you don't receiver a ban for your first offense.  In fact, they don't even tell anyone that you were caught, they put you in their drug program. You can see the entirety of the NFL drug policy here

Daily Links for 3/16/11

Jalen Rose Is Ignorant - He called black players that go to Duke 'Uncle Tom's.  Because Duke didn't recruit lower class black athletes, that means to him that the Black players that went there were being subservient to white folks.  WHAT?!?  And be sure you watch the video there.  Skip Bayless offers Jalen Rose about 10 opportunities to step back from what he said and Jalen doesn't.

And Grant Hill Called Him Out For It - Grant manages to both take the high road by not attacking Jalen back AND make his point amazingly well at the same time.

Oh... And So Did Jason Whitlock - Some people say Whitlock bases all of his columns on the fact that he is black and that it somehow makes him a bad writer.  Personally, I see a smart man who knows that his fellow white columnist would be definitely be considered racist if they say what he says.  He covers things in a unique  way and a unique perspective.  It makes him a must read in my book.

NFL Competition Committee To Ruin Kickoffs - They want to move the kicker up to the 35 yard line and make Kick off touchbacks come out to the 25 instead of the 20.  I understand that players get injured at a high rate on Kick offs, but they are one of the most exciting plays in the game as they are now and you get them after every score.  This change is going to end up making there be fewer returns and fewer returns will mean less kick off injuries overall, but I highly doubt the rate of injuries per return will go down.  Kickers will try to kick the ball higher and pin opponents deep on short returns rather than boot it out and let the other team have it at the 25.

Football Outsiders CB Charting Stats - Always good to have charting stats for Cornerbacks but I'd take them with a grain of salt for now.  I don't think the charting numbers account for pressure on the quarterback influencing throws and have asked them for clarification.  Just based on my own eyes I didn't feel like Cromartie had remotely that good a year and feel like the pressure on the QBs may have made his numbers look better than he actually looked in coverage.

EDIT: Late Addition - Jason Whitlock Podcast With Dan LeBatard - Awesome Podcast about LeBatard's writing and his ability to connect with athletes.  This quote is of him telling a story as told to him by Terrell Owens - "This is what Terrell told me 'Do you know how i found out who my father was? I was in my grandmothers caged front yard... My grandmother was always drinking and wouldn't let me leave the front yard. And i found out who my father was because i had a crush on the girl across the street and he came over and said 'Hey you can't have a crush on that girl... Thats your sister.''"  You never think about shit like that when it comes to a guy like Terrell.  You think he's crazy and shit but you never think about how he grew up and how he became the Terrell Owens he is today.

Links for 3/15/11

Clippers Players Payed For Coaches Surgery - A feel good story about some Clippers players paying for an assistant coach's cancer surgery.  Bring this up because the story was written today but it happened in 2004 and most of the players aren't even Clippers at this point, so this story isn't just a PR shit release but a story about an actual good thing that happened

NFLPA Draft Boycott Plans - Peter King's MMQB-Tuesday talks about what the NFLPA plans to do for the NFL Draft.  My question? How does this not demonstrate that the NFLPA is still acting as a union?

Adrian Peterson Is An Idiot - Not only does he bring up Farve coming back, but he calls the NFL "Modern Day Slavery".  Excuse me?  I don't recall slaves getting 60 Percent of their owners income... do you?  If thats the case I'd be happy to be an NFL slave for 40 percent of the Pie.  It's still fucking millions.

Don't Hate The Game, Hate The NFL Players Association

The NFL and it's players are going to court because both the union and it's leader DeMaurice Smith wanted to go to court.  The players know that in a battle between them and billionaires, the public is inclined to take their side. Which is why I'm writing this article about the truth...An educated public will understand that the players union's goal was not to negotiate, but to decertify.  All of these quotes are taken directly from nfllockout.com, the player's lockout website and  are taken from the post that is supposed to explain why the union had to decertify.

The Dead Period

With the NBA Trade Deadline passed, the MLB only in spring training and the NFL in limbo.... there really isn't much for me to say.  So just gonna use this space to post some good links i come across this week.

Cano Should Be Face Of The Yankees - Article about Cano needing to continue to produce and step up for this Yankee team to be good over the next few years

Internet Farve Reporting Fail - Awesome bit of reporting tracking how Farve came to be rumored to be on Dancing With The Stars

Lockout? No Chance - Why the NFL Will Have a New CBA By March 4th

There will be football next year. Neither side is willing to admit it, but both the NFL Owners and the NFAPA know that a deal is going to get done on time.  There is too much money on the table for this to not work out and the owners know that the players can't afford to not come to the negotiating table.  The players union knows that it is going to agree to the deal in the end, but the union also knows that it's better for them to wait until March 3rd to finally agree.

How can I say all of that with certainty?  I've done the research and connected the dots that no one is talking about.  Rather than harp over what the Union and Owners say every day, I've gone back and looked at the current expiring CBA to understand why the Owners opted out to begin with.  

People believe the NFL and the Union are fighting over stuff they really aren't as concerned with.  The eighteen game season is something the players aren't happy about, but it will add in the end add cash to their pockets.  It's not the line in the sand people would have you believe it is.  Also unimportant is the debate over the proposed rookie salary scale, as the players and owners alike agree that the rookie salaries are out of control.

So what is the arguing really about?  Cash, obviously.  The owners did a bad job negotiating the last agreement and haven't been making enough money.  The players, I'm sure, know that the last CBA doesn't work but aren't going to just freely give the money back to the owners.

Tennessee Titans' Five Biggest Player Decisions: Free Agency Starts at Home

Assuming they get a new collective bargaining agreement done, NFL Free Agency is scheduled to begin on March 3, 2011.  I'm going to go through every team between now and then and identify their top five free agents and try to determine what should be done with each player, be it resign them or let them walk.  I've been going team by team in draft order and am at the team with the eighth pick in the draft, the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans are the hardest team to forecast for going forwards.  When they were the Jeff Fisher Titans, it was fairly easy to predict their personnel moves and their strategy because Fisher had been the longest tenured head coach in the league.  Fisher liked to control the ball on offense and stop the run on defense and was willing to take chances on guys with questionable character.  Now with Fisher out and Mike Munchak in, I don't really know what to expect.

Munchak is a hall of fame former lineman and spent fourteen years as the Titans offensive line coach.  It would be easy to assume Munchak wants to do similar things with the football team to what Fisher did, but if Munchak wanted to do the same thing as Fisher, he likely wouldn't have fired offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger.

The new Mike Munchak Titans figure to me much different from the Jeff Fisher Titans, which makes writing about what the team will do with it's free agents pure speculation.  So instead of judging whether or not the I think Titans will bring each guy back, I'm going to simply evaluate each player as a player and whether or not he's worth bringing back.

Super Bowl 45 - The Pick

At this point, there is no need for me to write a Super Bowl column because all of the angles have been dissected more than once at this point.  So I'm just gonna give my pick with a quick bit of reasoning.

Pick - Steelers +3 or Steelers ML if book is only offering Steelers +2.5

1. While the Packers' defense deserves all the credit it has been getting, they aren't built to play the Steelers. Their 3 down lineman are all big power rush guys, but Pittsburgh's o-line has trouble with speed rushes.  Assuming they do a good job scheming Heath Miller to block Clay Matthews, they shouldn't have a big problem.

2.  The Packers are getting credit for being a fast team, but they aren't as fast as the Steelers are.   Because Mike Wallace is just that fast, the Steelers will improve more playing on the nice field down in Dallas than the Packers will.

3. Ben Roethlisburger and the Steelers offense will put points on the board.  They scored 31 against the Ravens and then 24 on the Jets.  They will get to at least 20 points against the Packers defense.  The Packers put up a bunch on Atlanta, but they were less impressive against the Bears, only putting up 14 offensive points over the whole game.

4. I'll take Mike Tomlin over Mike McCarthy any day of the week when it comes to game management.

5. After a full two weeks, no one has come up with a huge mismatch for either side this game.  It's pretty even.  So I'll take the team from the better conference who played two tough games already and came out on top rather than the team who almost let the Eagles and Bears (featuring Caleb Hanie) back into it.

Final Score Prediction - Steelers 31  Packers 20

San Francisco 49ers' Five Biggest Player Decisions: Free Agency Starts at Home

Assuming they get a new collective bargaining agreement done, NFL Free Agency is scheduled to begin on March 3, 2011.  I'm going to go through every team between now and then and identify their top five free agents and try to determine what should be done with each player, be it resign them or let them walk.  I've been going team by team in draft order and am at the team with the seventh pick in the draft, the San Francisco 49ers.

Once again this year, people expected the San Francisco 49ers to be the best team in the NFC West and once again, the 49ers failed to live up to expectations because of poor quarterback play.  Mike Singletary went back and forth with the quarterbacks all year but no matter who the 49ers put in at quarterback, they failed to sustain drives.

Mike Singletary was fired and the 49ers brought in Jim Harbaugh as their new Head Coach.  This hiring isn't a coincidence. Harbaugh is a former quarterback, a former quarterback coach, and is credited with the development of Andrew Luck, the likely number one overall pick in 2011.  The 49ers organization expects to have better quarterback play next year.

The question facing them is whether or not that better quarterback play will come from someone already with the organization or an outsider.  They have multiple quarterbacks with pedigree on the roster, but none have ever produced.  Two of those quarterbacks contracts are up, and the organization needs to how important it is to bring them back, or if that money would be better spent on their free agents on defense.