Tuesday, September 27, 2011

The Reality Of Fantasy Football - Week Three 2011 Fantasy Recap

The week four pickup column is live as this posts, but this is the more important weekly fantasy column on Big Derf Sports in my opinion.  The Reality of Fantasy Football takes a look back at last weeks results and what they mean to the players on your roster already, and what you should take away from this week and use to better your team for the rest of the year.  It's a game by game look at what the fantasy-rostered guys did this week.

The week three wrap up is a good companion piece to this, as it includes information about other players and the teams in general that isn't included in this column as it's not directly fantasy analysis, but can still be fantasy relevant.

We start with an explosive fantasy game for multiple players...

Bills 34 Patriots 31
-Ryan Fitzpatrick had another good game on Sunday and has done enough to make him a top ten fantasy quarterback option, at least until he draws some better opposing defenses.
-Only Tom Brady could throw four picks and still have a great fantasy day.  He's the number one guy right now, until a team somewhere shows at least a hint of being able to stop the Patriots.
-I really want to say that week 3 will end up as Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski's best days, but there is still serious upside here.  I'm not buying them because it's going to cost too much, but I'm not selling them unless I get a great offer either.
-He's not in the drops section of the pickup column yet, but another week or two at this rate and BenJarvis Green-Ellis is not going to be worth a roster spot.  He's only the back when they plan on running the ball, and he seems like he might be losing that job to Stevan Ridley soon.

Panthers 16 Jaguars 10
-I'm not really taking anything away from this game.  Most of it was played in conditions than neither team will see again all season long.  Why try to make fantasy sense of it.  I really haven't the slightest idea if Blaine Gabbert is any good or not.

49ers 13 Bengals 8
-Ugh... Just Ugh.  The only really fantasy relevant guys here, each team's running back, and A.J. Green, all did nothing on Sunday.  There were some dud fantasy games this Sunday, and this was one of them.
-Even worse than his lack of production, was the fact that Frank Gore went down with an ankle injury, and backup Kendall Hunter scored a touchdown in his absence.  I don't think this affects Gore the rest of the year as long as he can play this week, but if he doesn't and Hunter does good in his absence, it might become a long term issue for Gore's value.

Browns 17 Dolphins 16
-Montario Hardesty looked good in place of Peyton Hillis, but this was just a one week illness issue.  Hillis should be back as the featured back next week, and starting for you even against the Tennessee Titans.
-Reggie Bush looks to be done in Miami, at least in terms of fantasy relevance.  Daniel Thomas has taken over as the clear lead back there, and has been much more efficient on a per carry basis than Bush was.  Thomas getting the job might actually hurt Brandon Marshall's value some, as the offense should be more regularly on schedule and that will lead to less passes to Marshall.

Lions 26 Vikings 23 OT
-Matthew Stafford is obviously a top ten fantasy quarterback right now.  No real analysis there, just restating it to make sure no one missed the boat on that.
-Percy Harvin is still rosterable, but Adrian Peterson is the only member of the Minnesota offense that you should be starting in standard leagues right now.
-Nate Burleson had a bad game, but I'm holding onto him still.  It was a slow day for that offense.  There are better days coming soon.

Saints 40 Texans 33
-Ben Tate should have had a good game here, but this game showed the difference between him and Arian Foster.  Foster would have been able to take over this game against the Jonathan Vilma-less Saints Linebackers in the passing game, but Tate was held to a single catch for 8 yards. That's why Foster is going to be the guy again as soon as he's healthy, and you need to sell high on Tate right now.
-I'm still out on the Saints' Running Backs, but I'm buying on Lance Moore here.  While Colston is out, he's going to continue to be Drew Brees' favorite target in the passing game, and can put up plenty of fantasy points.

Giants 29 Eagles 16
-Ahmad Bradshaw looked solid running the ball on Sunday, and now is the time to make the trade for him.  The schedule is much easier over the next three weeks, and Bradshaw should feast on these weaker opponents.
-You need to be worried about the Eagles offense for fantasy purposes. Vick has been knocked out of two games in a row, and it's not looking like the Eagles can really protect him.
-Hakeem Nicks had another disappointing game, but you can't be worried about him.  He's elite, and will pick it up.  Keep starting him.

Titans 17 Broncos 14
-Another big game passing for Matt Hasselbeck, and another awful game on the ground for Chris Johnson.  CJ2K is going to be bucking some horrible historical trends if he performs well this year, but I think he will turn it around.  He is too much of a game breaker to keep having these awful games.  He'll have a breakout game soon, even if it's just one 90 yard touchdown.
-Very interesting that Knowshon Moreno was active, but didn't see any touches.  Either he wasn't completely healed and John Fox just activated him to keep the Titans on their toes, or hes deep in the doghouse.  Moreno owners better hope he was just still hurt and will be back involved in the offense this week.

Raiders 34 Jets 24
-Darren McFadden proved officially that he is a must start in all matchups, and is really a top three fantasy back right now, with Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster hurt and Chris Johnson under-performing. He's going to put up eye popping yardage totals every week and eye popping fantasy totals on games where Michael Bush doesn't vulture his touchdowns.
-Mark Sanchez didn't impress me again, with almost half of his passing yardage going to running backs.  I just don't think he'll keep putting up good fantasy numbers like this all year long.

Chargers 20 Chiefs 17
-Ryan Mathews seems to have taken back over from Mike Tolbert in the San Diego backfield, and it's pretty obvious why.  While Tolbert is a physical beast, Mathews is strong himself and just much faster, with even better hands.  As long as Mathews doesn't put the ball on the turf, I think that Norv Turner will keep riding him.
-No one really looked that good in the absence of Jamaal Charles.  I still think LeRon McClain will eventually prove to be the best option there, but for now the guy you want... well you don't really want him, but the guy you would pick is Dexter McCluster.

Ravens 37 Rams 7
-Steven Jackson was back in this game, but didn't look that great.  No word of a set back though in his first action, so I expect him to pick up more of the workload this Sunday when they play the Redskins
-Joe Flacco lit up the fantasy scoreboard, but most of that work went to Torrey Smith.  At the end of the day, Boldin had just 7 fantasy points in standard leagues, which is looking like it might be around what to expect until they start getting him the ball in the end zone.

Packers 27 Bears 17
-Jermichael Finley finally exploded with a three touchdown game on Sunday.  It's not going to be that impressive every week, but he is going to score fairly regularly, and will remain a prime target for the Green Bay offense because of how big of a mismatch he represents.
-Through sheer quantity of passes thrown, Jay Cutler quietly had another good fantasy Sunday, and while you don't want to have to trot him out there, there remains plenty of worse options.

Seahawks 13 Cardinals 10
-Sidney Rice played his first game of the year and gained 109 yards, good for almost 60% of what Tarvaris Jackson managed to throw for.  He looks like he's going to be fantasy relevant all year in spite of what Jackson isn't doing at the quarterback position.
-Kevin Kolb doesn't look like he's going to become a big fantasy player this season.  He's had his chances to show up here early, but hasn't done much with it.

Buccaneers 16 Falcons 13
-This game was a bit of a defensive struggle, and both teams players had pretty average fantasy days.  When there are just two touchdowns scored, that's not a lot of points to go around.  Both teams will have bigger games ahead, and I'm not worried about any of the offensive players in this one.
-Michael Turner should bring it back next week with a solid match-up against Seattle.  The Seattle run defense is good, but Turner will get much more work this week after a loss on Sunday.

Steelers 23 Colts 20
-Rashard Mendenhall is still a big worry for me, after another awful game on Sunday night.  Houston next week is going to score bunches of points, and the Steelers will have to pass.  You might want to sell off on Mendenhall now, before it gets too late.
-Not buying the big game for Pierre Garcon here, as it was Reggie Wayne a few weeks ago and could be Austin Collie next week.  The problem is that there isn't enough good passes to go around right now.  All the weapons are good, but they aren't worth fantasy starts.

Cowboys 18 Redskins 16
-The Cowboys offense doesn't look good for fantasy right now because of the injuries to the receivers.  With no one to stretch the field, Romo doesn't look good, and there is nowhere for Felix Jones to run and no room for Jason Witten to work.  When they get healthy they'll be dangerous again.
-Lots of field goals here, but don't take that to mean anything going forward for your fantasy team.  It's just random.

-Fred "Big Derf" Tobin

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