Saturday, September 24, 2011

NFL Week Three 2011 Game Picks and Over/Unders

Week Two Totals
Straight Up Picks - 12-4
Picks vs Spread - 10-4-2
Over/Unders - 5-10-1
"Bankroll" - -0.4 Units

Season To Date Totals
Straight Up Picks - 20-12
Picks vs Spread - 17-13-2
Over/Unders - 14-17-1
"Bankroll" - -2 Units

After helping an otherwise bad picks day in week one, my Over/Under success rate plummeted in week two. That's life sometimes. Hopefully I can bounce back this week and get back up to even on the year. I'm technically 31-30-3 on "bets" but the vigs have taken their toll on the "bankroll".

Week three should be another good week here, the some of my undervalued teams are starting to see the line movement catch up to them, but there are still plenty of good spots for us to get value.

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) O/U 40.5
While the Bengals aren't going to be very good this season, they are a non-NFC West team who is playing at home against an NFC West team.  They deserve to be favored by at least 3 points here.  It's that simple.  The Bengal Defense has looked fairly decent and their young offense has been surprising for the first two games, while the 49ers haven't done anything to impress me yet. They should have lost that game against the Cowboys by more and they only barely finished off the Seahawks at home even with a pair of Ted Ginn Jr special teams touchdowns.  The Bengals should have no problem winning this one by three, if not more.
Prediction - Bengals 21 49ers 14
Picks - Bengals -2.5 and Under

New England Patriots (-7) at Buffalo Bills O/U 54
If you took the Bills earlier in the week when the line was at New England -9, then you got a fairly solid bet.  However, at -7, the Patriots are the way to go here.  The Bills aren't in the same league as the Patriots in terms of talent, and don't have much of a shot to win this game.  The Bills do have a shot to keep it close though.  The Bills have a good enough offense to score a few times on New England, and the Bills are very good at moving the ball in garbage time against their opponents' prevent defenses.  The Patriots should win this game easily, but the final score is going to be closer than the game was.  If you can get the Bills at +7.5 or higher then they are the pick here, but when a last second touchdown will likely only get you a push anyway like it will here at Bills +7, you want to just take the favorite.
Prediction - Patriots 42 Bills 34
Picks - Patriots -7 and Over

Running late here Saturday night, so cutting out the analysis and just posting the picks from here out.  May fill in later in the evening.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-4) O/U 52
Prediction - Texans 30 Saints 27
Picks - Texans Straight Up and +4 and Over 52

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) O/U 48
Prediction - Giants 28 Eagles 24
Picks - Giants Straight Up and +9 and Over 48

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-1.5) O/U 41.5
Prediction - Dolphins 23 Browns 20
Picks - Dolphins Straight Up and +1.5 and Over 41.5

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-7) O/U 42.5
Prediction - Titans 21 Broncos 10
Picks - Titans -7 and Under

Detroit Lions (-3) at Minnesota Vikings O/U 44.5
Prediction - Lions 35 Vikings 10
Picks - Lions -3 and Over

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) O/U 43
Prediction - Panthers 27 Jaguars 20
Picks - Panthers -3.5 and Over

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-14.5) O/U 44.5
Prediction - Chargers 41 Chiefs 3
Picks - Chargers -14.5 and Under

New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders O/U 41
Prediction - Raiders 23 Jets 17
Picks - Raiders Straight Up and +3 and Under

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at St. Louis Rams O/U 42
Prediction - Ravens 28 Rams 10
Picks - Ravens -4.5 and Under

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) O/U 46
Prediction - Buccaneers 27 Falcons 24
Picks - Buccaneers -1.5 Over 46

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Seattle Seahawks O/U 43
Prediction - Seahawks 21 Cardinals 17
Picks - Seahawks Straight up and +3 and Under.

Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears O/U 45.5
Prediction - Bears 21 Packers 20
Picks - Bears Straight Up and +4 and Under

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Indianapolis Colts O/U 39.5
Prediction - Steelers 27 Colts 10
Picks - Steelers -10.5 and Under

Washington Redskins  at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)O/U 45.5
Prediction - Cowboys 27 Redskins 20
Picks - Cowboys -4.5 and Over

-Fred "Big Derf" Tobin

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